Since President Javier Milei took power in December 2023, there has been a historically unprecedented shift in Argentina’s foreign policy. An "anti-socialist" rhetoric, uncompromising alignment with the United States and Israel and marked indifference towards schemes of regional integration have redefined the country’s place on the international chessboard. Within that new paradigm, the relationship with Russia – with whom Argentina maintains a trade surplus – is in a state of diplomatic hibernation.
That is, at least, the diagnosis offered by the Kremlin’s ambassador in Buenos Aires, Dmitry Feoktistov. During an interview on the day he marked Russia’s national day (June 12) at the nation’s Embassy in Recoleta, the diplomat discussed the bilateral relationship, which is now stuck in the global rift that has emerged as a result of the war in Ukraine.
"Unfortunately, the ties between our countries have become frozen in many aspects since the start of military operations in Ukraine – and not on Russia’s initiative,” admitted Feoktistov.
Nevertheless, he remains optimistic: "Our friendship is far more lasting than the current geopolitical situation and will survive any administration."
Consulted as to the state of the relationship with the Milei government, the Russian representative dodged any direct clash. "The main task of any ambassador is to promote healthy relations with any administration. That is the key, independent of the political context," he pointed out, highlighting that the two countries have maintained diplomatic relations since 1885.
"Although we do not have as much dialogue or economic projects as we would like, we’re ready to go as far and as fast as our Argentine friends decide. The ball is in their court," he recognised.
Feoktistov was hosting a commemoration of the declaration of Russian sovereignty (June 12, 1990) in an international context marked by a level of global conflict unprecedented since World War II. But nor could he ignore the local context marked by the ratification of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s conviction in the “Vialidad” corruption case.
That issue “belongs to the domestic affairs of Argentina," he said, maintaining protocol despite his good relationship with the ex-president, whom he recognised as having met several times.
The Trump factor
While the bilateral chill is evident, there has been no breach. At a time of global realignments, Moscow appreciates that, at least until now, Argentina has not joined the Western sanctions nor sent arms to Ukraine. That position which has continued under Milei, despite initial rumours of aircraft being sent to Ukraine, which were subsequently denied by the Foreign Ministry in Buenos Aires.
"We value this wise and constructive focus," said Feoktistov.
But the Russian ambassador still highlighted the bias of the Milei administration, which has maintained an ambivalent stance.
"Buenos Aires clearly demonstrates that it is more pro-Ukrainian than pro-Russian ... but I think that today a certain shift in the Argentine stance towards a more balanced focus can be observed," he indicated, without providing further details.
Nor did he wish to speculate as to whether this presumed change responded to international factors, such as the return of Donald Trump to power in the United States and his rapprochement with Vladimir Putin.
"I do not want to speculate about the role of the 'Trump factor' nor any other external influence. Argentina is free to choose its path in turbulent international waters. For us the practical results are more important than the reasons which sustain them. Let us roll up our sleeves and move forward,” said the ambassador.
Ambivalent stance
While laying down an ideological line, Argentina’s diplomacy under Milei has zigzagged in the face of the main global conflicts. with Ukraine proving no exception.
After winning the elections, Milei formally invited his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelenskyy to his presidential inauguration. Early this year they met in Switzerland at the Davos Forum. In March, with ceasefire negotiations underway between Russia and Ukraine, the two leaders shared a telephone conversation.
Yet that gesture was preceded by a striking fact: on February 24, on the second anniversary of the start of the war, Argentina abstained in a key vote of the United Nations General Assembly demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. It was a break with the nation’s previous position – under Milei’s predecessor Alberto Fernández, Argentina had voted in favour of similar initiatives.
That shift was no coincidence. It came a few days after Trump had branded Zelenskyy as a “dictator” for not having called elections during the conflict while advancing in an informal rapprochement with Putin.
In that context, Argentina’s ambivalence was interpreted as a gesture of solidarity with Washington, which under Trump had broken with the Western world’s diplomatic isolation of the Kremlin, including an official message to Russia on its national day, a gesture which had been interrupted since February 2022.
Trade ties remain
The Casa Rosada’s gesture did not go unnoticed by the Kremlin. The Milei administration is marked not only by the ideological shift in its foreign policy but also by its need to beef up Central Bank reserves, a key condition in its new US$20-billion loan with the International Monetary Fund. On that latter point, the telephone number of Economy Minister Luis Caputo is useful, considering that while Russia is a "minor" partner in comparison with others (like China, Brazil or Chile), there is a trade surplus.
Despite the political chill, bilateral trade has not been halted. Last April Argentina exported to Russia a total of US$37 million while importing goods worth US$17.5 million for a trade surplus of US$19.5 million. According to the data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), in comparison with the same month last year, Argentine exports grew 25.2 percent (passing from US$29.5 million to US$37 million) while imports fell 32 percent from US$25.7 million to US$17.5 million.
The data confirms that, beyond the diplomatic frictions, the economic relation is still breathing.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin seems to be playing a waiting game.
“In the past, documents to establish an integral strategic bilateral association were signed and technically, they have not been reviewed,” recalled Feoktistov.
For now, there are no bilateral projects in progress and the joint bilateral economic agenda is virtually paralysed.
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